01 / The mechanism and its boundary
What is being described
Numerical nondeterminism is variation in the results of the same computation on the same inputs, across repeated runs or across hardware and software setups, that comes from floating-point arithmetic rather than from intended randomness such as sampling S-1010 S-0016.
Floating-point addition is not associative, so a rounded sum depends on the order in which its terms are accumulated S-1009 S-1010. GPUs leave that order, their rounding strategy and their handling of subnormal numbers unspecified, and the same matrix multiplication can give different results on different GPU architectures S-1010. On a single machine, a Thinking Machines post finds the LLM forward pass run-to-run deterministic for a fixed batch, and traces the variation users see to kernels whose results change with batch size, which depends on server load S-1009. Exact replay can therefore need a record of the original hardware model, quantization, parallelism layout, kernels and batch size S-0018. For a verifier, this makes legitimate variation hard to tell from real problems S-0016. Verification designs either tolerate it or remove it:
- Sampled inference recomputation tolerates it by comparing outputs with a trusted reference that uses the same sampling seed S-0016, and training-transcript verification accepts a recomputed checkpoint within a small distance of the reported one S-0029.
- Deterministic and bit-exact inference removes it with batch-invariant kernels S-1009 or software emulation that predicts, bit for bit, the outputs of dense transformer blocks on four NVIDIA GPU models S-0020.
Connections in the research map
Related research
Sources and provenance
- S-1010 / Tier A
Hawkeye: Reproducing GPU-Level Non-Determinism ↗
E. Badash, D. Boneh, I. Komargodski, M. Srivastava · 2026 · Proceedings of Machine Learning and Systems 8 (MLSys 2026)
Supports: GPU non-determinism arises from unspecified details including rounding strategy, subnormal numbers and accumulation order, since floating-point arithmetic is not associative; results differ between GPU architectures
Locator: abstract; §1
Version and catalogue details - S-0016 / Tier B
DiFR: Inference Verification Despite Nondeterminism ↗
A. Karvonen, D. Reuter, R. Rinberg, L. Marks, A. Garriga-Alonso, K. Warr · 2025 · ICML 2026 Workshop on Technical AI Governance Research
Supports: re-running the same inference often gives different results due to benign numerical noise; comparison against a trusted reference conditioned on the same sampling seed
Locator: abstract
Version and catalogue details - S-1009 / Tier C
Defeating Nondeterminism in LLM Inference ↗
H. He, Thinking Machines Lab · 2025 · Thinking Machines Lab: Connectionism
Supports: floating-point non-associativity; LLM forward pass run-to-run deterministic; lack of batch invariance with load-dependent batch size as the main cause of nondeterminism in LLM inference endpoints; batch-invariant kernels
Locator: sections on non-associativity, the concurrency hypothesis and batch invariance
Version and catalogue details - S-0018 / Tier B
A System Overview for Near-Term, Low-Trust AI Compute Verification ↗
N. Cankaya · 2026 · Machine Intelligence Research Institute
Supports: metadata needed for bit-exact replay (hardware SKU, quantization, parallelism, kernels, batch size)
Locator: §5.2.2
Version and catalogue details - S-0029 / Tier B
What does it take to catch a Chinchilla? Verifying Rules on Large-Scale Neural Network Training via Compute Monitoring ↗
Y. Shavit · 2023 · arXiv
Supports: accept a recomputed checkpoint within a small distance of the reported one
Locator: §5.1
Version and catalogue details - S-0020 / Tier B
Bit-Exact AI Inference Verification Without Performance Tradeoffs ↗
N. Cankaya · 2026 · ICML 2026 Workshop on Technical AI Governance Research
Supports: software emulation predicting every bit of transformer forward passes across NVIDIA GPU architectures, validated on dense blocks on A100, L40, L40S and H100
Locator: abstract; evaluation
Version and catalogue details
- Source review date
- 2026-09-25
- Drafted by (source map)
- ai
- Review handles (source map)
- codex-review